Assessing Domestic Forest Capacity for Cross-Laminated Timber in Korean Urban Housing

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS:
This study tests whether Korea's domestic forests can adequately support cross-laminated timber (CLT) adoption in apartment construction through 2050, given constraints from forest accessibility, sustainability requirements, and processing capacity.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS:
26-year projections (2025-2050) of CLT demand and supply for Korean apartment construction under multiple scenarios. Key findings: (1) Annual apartment demand of 200-460k units driven by replacement cycles despite demographic decline; (2) CLT requirements of 0.32-4.39 million m³/year under three adoption scenarios (15%/35%/50% ceilings); (3) Domestic supply potential of 0.26-0.93 million m³/year; (4) Self-sufficiency ranging from 18% (accelerated adoption) to 110% (conservative adoption); (5) Cumulative carbon mitigation of 31-187 Mt CO₂ by 2050.

NOTABLE FINDINGS:
Forest accessibility is the most restrictive constraint, reducing theoretical harvest from 16.4 million m³/year to <1 million m³/year. Moderate adoption (35% ceiling) achieves 37% self-sufficiency with 93.5 Mt CO₂ mitigation. Import dependence is inevitable for medium-to-high adoption pathways.

DATA CONTENTS:
Five primary tables with annual values (2025-2050):
- Table A1: CLT demand by adoption scenario (Conservative/Moderate/Accelerated)
- Table A2: CLT supply under resource constraints (Low/Medium/High)
- Table A3: Self-sufficiency ratios (supply/demand)
- Table B1: Annual carbon mitigation
- Table B2: Cumulative carbon benefits

HOW DATA WAS GATHERED:
Demand: Based on Statistics Korea (2023) demographic projections and 35-year apartment replacement cycles. CLT volumes calculated from 105 m² average floor area × 0.15 m³/m² structural intensity.

Supply: Sequential constraints applied to Korea Forest Service (2023) national forest inventory: species suitability (69%), age-class (77%), sustainability (80% of increment), accessibility (12.5%→18.5%), processing efficiency (30%→38%).

Adoption scenarios: Logistic S-curves converging to policy-realistic ceilings by late 2030s, consistent with international CLT diffusion patterns.

Carbon: Biogenic storage (0.9 tCO₂/m³) + substitution effects (1.5 tCO₂/m³) from Korean species studies and international LCA.

HOW TO INTERPRET:
Units: Volume (m³), Carbon (tCO₂), Percentages (%). Self-sufficiency >100% = surplus, <100% = import required. All projections use 2025 baseline. Results support scenario planning for import strategies, forest management priorities, and adoption incentives.

REPLICATION & EXTENSION:
Framework transferable to other countries with aging forests and apartment-dominated housing. Parameters adjustable for alternative demographic/policy scenarios. Enables cross-country comparisons of resource adequacy.

DATA SOURCES:
Statistics Korea (2023) Population Projections; Korea Forest Service (2023) Statistical Yearbook; Land and Housing Research Institute (2025) Housing Demand Analysis; MOLIT (2023) Housing Statistics; Author calculations.