The Taliban’s Return to Power: An Empirical Analysis of the Afghan Peace Negotiations of 2018–2020

Peace negotiations reduce violence and facilitate a roadmap to prosperity and stability. This study assesses the immediate effects of four significant events during the Afghan peace talks on the 7-day district-level averages of violent incidents and fatalities during 2018-2020. I use a regression discontinuity in time design to test game-theoretic predictions and an event study analysis to highlight the districts with concentrated effects. The initiation of US – Taliban talks escalated violence, particularly that between the Taliban and Afghan forces in highly violent districts. Conversely, the cancellation of talks and US – Taliban deal agreement substantially reduced violent incidents, specifically those between Afghan forces and the Taliban, in highly violent regions. The meeting between the Afghan government and Taliban reduced the possibility of Afghan forces attacking the Taliban. To indicate their good faith, the Taliban became less violent following certain events; however, this reduction in violence was short-lived. Furthermore, the Afghan government actively engaged in military responses, despite its absence during the US – Taliban talks. After the US – Taliban deal agreement, the Taliban’s aggression increases, whereas Afghan forces’ offense against the Taliban remained below the historical average.