The development of a quantitative basis for optimal spill response planning

Decision-making in the increasingly complex oil spill response and planning community is based on “best-available” information. This “best-available” information involves analysis from a number of experts. The decision-maker must compile these discrete pieces of information to make decisions on protection strategies and priorities. In response situations, it can sometimes be obvious when less-thanoptimum decisions have been made. In planning or drill situations, the evaluation of these decisions can be very difficult. In this paper we outline a quantitative approach to optimize planning strategies using game theory. In order to “play the game,” we hypothesize an initial spill and present a trajectory analysis approach that defines the resulting probabilistic threat. The player must then prioritize and quantify resources at risk from the spill as well as costs associated with alternate protection strategies. With this set-up information and a particular inventory of equipment, we use an operations research procedure to solve the optimal resource allocation problem. The solution is a recommendation for which protection strategies to implement and one round of play, or a planning cycle, is completed. Subsequent rounds of play represent new planning cycles and are initiated with a spill forecast (making Nature one of the players) replacing the initial spill distribution. New equipment can be added or subtracted from the available inventory during any round of play.