Replication data for: The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross- market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets.

本研究分析了1990年至2007年间中国进口竞争加剧对美国本地劳动力市场的影响。研究利用由产业专业化初始差异所引致的进口暴露程度跨市场差异，并以其他高收入经济体的中国进口变动作为美国进口的工具变量。进口规模上升会使承载进口竞争型制造业的本地劳动力市场出现失业率升高、劳动参与率下降以及工资水平降低的情况。在基准回归设定中，进口竞争可解释美国制造业就业同期总降幅的四分之一。在贸易暴露程度更高的劳动力市场中，失业、残疾、养老及医疗相关的转移支付福利支出也会显著增长。