Collaborative Research: Evaluating Retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment: Assessing Controlling Processes, Uncertainties, and Projections

Accurate reconstructions and predictions of glacier movement on timescales of human interest require a better understanding of available observations and the ability to model the key processes that govern ice flow. The fact that many of these processes are interconnected, are loosely constrained by data, and involve not only the ice, but also the atmosphere, ocean, and solid Earth, makes this a challenging endeavor, but one that is essential for Earth-system modeling and the resulting climate and sea-level forecasts that are provided to policymakers worldwide. Based on the amount of ice present in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ability to flow and/or melt into the ocean, its complete collapse would result in a global sea-level rise of 3.3 to 5 meters, making its stability and rate of change scientific questions of global societal significance. Whether or not a collapse eventually occurs, a better understanding of the potential West Antarctic contribution to sea level over the coming decades and centuries is necessary when considering the fate of coastal population centers. Recent observations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica indicate that it is experiencing faster mass loss than any other region of the continent. At present, the long-term stability of this embayment is unknown, with both theory and observations suggesting that collapse is possible. This study is focused on this critical region as well as processes governing changes in outlet glacier flow. To this end, we will test an ice-sheet model against existing observations and improve treatment of key processes within ice sheet models.

This is a four-year (one year of no-cost extension) modeling study using the open-source Ice Sheet System Model in coordination with other models to help improve projections of future sea-level change. Overall project goals, which are distributed across the collaborating institutions, are to:
1. hindcast the past two-to-three decades of evolution of the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector to determine controlling processes, incorporate and test parameterizations, and assess and improve model initialization, spinup, and performance;
2. utilize observations from glacial settings and efficient process-oriented models to develop a better understanding of key processes associated with outlet glacier dynamics and to create numerically efficient parameterizations for these often sub-grid-scale processes;
3. project a range of evolutions of the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector in the next several centuries given various forcings and inclusion or omission of physical processes in the model.