Data for study "Realisation of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2°C"

This is the data repository with country-level data and individual scenario data for the study “Realisation of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2°C”. Please find below a description of the different data sources available. 

Emissions Scenario Data (scenarios_12Nov2021a_CR.csv). The complete set of infilled and extended emissions for each scenario presented in the study. The emissions timeseries span from 2015 to 2100 for 52 emissions species required to run MAGICC7.

Scenario Statistics Table (stats_12Nov2021a_CR_short.csv). Summary statistics for the scenarios used in the sensitivity study. Statistics available include Exceedance probabilities, peak warming, year of peak warming and warming in 2100.

Supplementary Table S1 (supplementary_table-s1.csv) - Estimate of total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) in 1990, 2010, 2019 and for 2025 and 2030 under the NDCs. The ‘lower’ and ‘higher’ end of the range span the four cases of full implementation and ‘unconditional-only’ NDC quantification, with their respective ranges (e.g. Australia’s 26%-28% target). Historical data based on country-level data in NDCs and PRIMAP-hist CR. Aggregation of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 emissions performed in GWP-100 AR6 metrics. Note that the common reporting guidelines under the Paris Agreement’s transparency framework currently chose GWP-100 AR5 metric as default (Decision 5/CMA.3, UNFCCC, 2021).

Supplementary Table S2 (supplementary_table-s2.csv) An estimate of potentially additional methane reductions if the Global Methane Pledge were implemented on a country-by-country level with a 30% reduction. Of the 104 countries signed up by 2 Nov 2018, 101 are here considered (with no sufficient methane data availability for Niue, Palau and Federal State of Micronesia). 

Scenario Timeseries (timeseries_12Nov2021a_CR.csv). Surface Temperature and Kyoto Greenhouse Gas emissions excluding CO2 AFOLU for NDC scenarios presented in the study. 

IEA Scenario Timeseries (timeseries_IEA.csv).  Surface Temperature and Kyoto Greenhouse Gas emissions excluding CO2 AFOLU for the IEA scenarios presented in the study.

Contact Jared Lewis for additional data about the target scenarios.