Groundswell Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050

The Groundswell Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050, data set provides a baseline population distribution for 2010 and projections from 2020 to 2050, in ten-year increments, of population distribution and internal climate-related and other migration. The projections are produced using the NCAR-CIDR Spatial Population Downscaling Model developed by the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model incorporates assumptions based on future development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways or SSPs) and emissions trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The SSPs include SSP2, representing a middle-of-the road future, and SSP4, representing an unequal development future. Climate models using low and high emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, then drive climate impact models on crop productivity and water availability from the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone are estimated to be 1 meter under RCP2.6 and 2 meters under RCP8.5, to account for potential storm surge or coastal flooding. Three scenarios are generated, a pessimistic reference scenario combining SSP4 and RCP8.5, a more climate-friendly scenario combining SSP4 and RCP2.6, and a more inclusive development scenario combining SSP2 and RCP8.5, and each scenario represents an ensemble of four model runs combining different climate impact models. The modeling work was funded and developed jointly with The World Bank, and covers most World Bank client countries, with reports released in 2018 and 2021 that address different regions and provide full methodological details.

本数据集《基于共享社会经济路径（SSPs）和代表性浓度路径（RCPs）的八分之一度空间人口与迁移预测，2010-2050》提供了2010年的基准人口分布以及从2020年至2050年的人口分布和内部气候相关及其他迁移的预测，预测结果以十年为间隔进行更新。该数据集的预测是基于由纽约城市大学人口研究所（CIDR）和国家大气研究中心（NCAR）开发的NCAR-CIDR空间人口降尺度模型生成的，该模型整合了基于未来发展战略情景（共享社会经济路径或SSPs）和排放轨迹（代表性浓度路径或RCPs）的假设。SSPs包括代表中间发展道路的SSP2和代表不平等发展道路的SSP4。使用低和高排放情景的气候模型，如RCP2.6和RCP8.5，进而驱动来自跨部门影响模型互评项目（ISIMIP）的作物生产力及水资源可用性的气候影响模型。沿海地区海平面上升的影响预计在RCP2.6情景下为1米，在RCP8.5情景下为2米，以考虑可能的暴潮或沿海洪水。共生成三种情景：将SSP4与RCP8.5结合的悲观参考情景、将SSP4与RCP2.6结合的更加气候友好型情景，以及将SSP2与RCP8.5结合的更具包容性发展情景，每种情景代表四个模型运行的不同气候影响模型的组合。建模工作由世界银行共同资助和开发，涵盖了世界银行的大部分客户国家，并在2018年和2021年发布的报告中针对不同地区提供了详尽的方法论细节。