Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité? The role of spatial inequalities in understanding the determinants of the populist vote in the 2022 French presidential election

In April 2022, the French presidential election was held, where two candidates faced each other in the second round, one who embodied the Europeanist and pro-establishment option (Macron) and the other the populist option (Le Pen). This situation, combined with the high level of spatial disaggregation of socioeconomic information within the French statistical system, makes this case especially interesting for analysing how the persistence of spatial income inequalities at the local level, which ‘leaves behind’ certain areas from general socioeconomic progress, contributes to the increase in populism and antisystem political options. After applying a model controlling for the spatial dependence of the data and checking endogeneity issues, it is possible to verify that local spatial income truly matters in understanding the dynamics of political discontent. The relative income position of each locality within a group of neighbours is important in the sense that, after controlling for several place-specific characteristics, local areas that are poorer than their neighbours tend to have a higher antisystem vote share, and vice versa. Other relevant conclusions are obtained that confirm and expand conclusions from the ‘geography of discontent’ literature and remark on the importance of cohesion policies at the local level for reducing the populist vote.