MEECA: um Modelo Econométrico Espacial para Projeção Consistente de Culturas Agropecuárias

The objective of this article is to present the MEECA model, an innovative econometric methodology for generating economically consistent long term scenarios of projections for agriculture and living stock. This methodology is based upon the spatial econometrics, taking into account the spatial effects, namely, the spatial dependence and the spatial heterogeneity. In the regressions, we incorporate various spatial terms, such as spillover effects, spatial expansion of coefficients, spatial error lag, etc. This methodology is applied for the estimation of the spatial econometric models of some agricultural and living stock products in the Amazon region, namely, rice, soy bean, corn, other extractive products (excluding wood), cattle and other living stock products. The MEECA model is directly linked to an applied general equilibrium model, guaranteeing the systemic consistency of the projections.