Trophic reorganization of animal communities under climate change

Aim This study uses a novel modeling approach to understand global trophic structure transformations under 21st-century climate changes. The goal is to project and understand the impacts of climate change on trophic dynamics, guiding future research and conservation efforts.
Location 14,520 terrestrial grid cells of 1° x 1° globally.
Taxon Trophic structures were assessed for 15,265 species, including 9,993 non-marine birds and 5,272 terrestrial mammals, across 9 predefined trophic guilds.
Methods A spatially explicit community trophic structure model, based on an extreme gradient boosting algorithm (Xgboost), was used. The model was trained with 1961-1990 climatic data and projected changes according to three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85.
Results The Xgboost model showed high predictive accuracy (86%, kappa=0.91). Projections indicated many global regions are transitioning in their trophic structures due to climate changes from 1990 to 2018, with decreas..., Data Collection
Species Distribution Data
Geographical data were garnered from two primary sources and subsequently plotted on a global terrestrial grid, with each cell measuring 1 × 1°. These sources included the global distribution ranges of terrestrial mammals and non-marine birds. The distributions of species, specifically 9,993 non-marine birds and 5,272 terrestrial mammals, totaling 15,265 species, were informed by the IUCN Global Assessment's data on native ranges (IUCN, 2014). To enable analysis, a presence/absence matrix was created. In this matrix, the species were aligned as columns, each named, against 14,498 terrestrial grid cells, each cell measuring 1 × 1°, as rows. These include all the non-coastal cells of the world, excluding Antarctica and some northern regions, such as most of Greenland, for which some data are lacking. This approach provided a clear, granular view of species distribution across the globe.
Bioclimatic Variables
The bioclimatic variables were divided ..., , # Data from: Trophic reorganization of animal communities under climate change

This dataset includes 13 databases and 2 scripts, providing predictions of species-carrying capacities across 9 trophic guilds under three climate change scenarios (SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85) at four future time points (2040, 2060, 2080, 2100). The data covers 14,498 rows of 1°×1° terrestrial grid cells, detailing latitude, longitude, and projected changes in species numbers.

*Description of Data and File Structure*

The dataset comprises 12 databases, each representing specific climate scenarios and time points, including 11 variables: latitude, longitude, and projected species numbers in trophic guilds. The files are in CSV format, structured for analysis and visualization. The 13th database contains the 6,620 grid cells that overlap with protected areas, which were used to train the climate model. This script includes the optimization of the algorithm and the resulting model.

*Code/Software*

1\. MapsTG...