Processing Location for Cross-Border Perishables with Arrival-Rate–Conserving Conversion: Thresholds, Strategy Frontiers, and a China–US Case Study

This paper studies where to locate processing for cross-border perishable supply chains by endogenizing state conversion (fresh → powder) in an arrival-rate–conserving network optimization model. We formulate a linear program that jointly accounts for state-dependent losses, conversion yields, and mode-specific transport and trade costs. We derive two analytical decision thresholds—a critical distance and a critical ocean-freight cost—that characterize when source-side processing dominates destination-side processing. In a China–US case study, observed ocean rates exceed the critical threshold, and the model selects processing at source; the recommendation holds across ±20% parameter variation and is summarized via a strategy-frontier and a one-page rules card. We verify high agreement between the thresholds and full LP optima and report robustness using uncertainty bands. A reproducibility package (model code, calibrated parameters, and scripts) and a technical supplement are provided.