Data and code from: Spring phenological escape is critical for the survival of temperate tree seedlings

Understory plants in deciduous forests often rely on access to
ephemeral light availability before the canopy closes in spring and after
the canopy reopens in fall, a strategy commonly referred to as
phenological escape. Although there is evidence for a relationship between
understory plant phenology and demographic performance, a mechanistic link
is still missing. In this study, we bridged this gap by estimating annual
carbon assimilation as a function of foliar phenology and photosynthetic
capacity for seedlings of two temperate tree species that commonly
co-occur across eastern North America. We then modeled the relationship
between estimated carbon assimilation and observed seedling survival and
growth. Our results indicate that seedlings of both species strongly
depend on spring phenological escape to assimilate the majority of their
annual carbon budget and that this mechanism significantly affects their
likelihood of survival (but not growth). Foliar desiccation also played a
strong role in driving patterns of seedling survival, suggesting that
water availability will also help shape seedling recruitment dynamics. We
found only weak associations between seedling senescence in fall and
annual carbon assimilation, suggesting that phenological escape in fall
plays a relatively minor role in seedling demographic performance. Our
results indicate that spring phenological escape is critical for survival
of these temperate tree species, and thus any changes to this dynamic
associated with climate change could strongly impact these species’
recruitment.