Experimental warming in the field delays phenology and reduces body mass and survival: implications for the persistence of a pollinator under climate change

1. Climate change is rapidly altering thermal environments across the globe. The effects of increased temperatures in already warm environments may be particularly strong because organisms are likely to be near their thermal safety margins, with limited tolerance to additional heat stress. 2. We conduct an in situ field experiment over two years to investigate the direct effects of temperature on an early-season solitary bee in a warm, arid region of the Southwestern USA. Our field experiment manipulates the thermal environment of Osmia ribifloris (Megachilidae) from larval development through adult emergence, simulating both previous cooler (ca. 1950; nest boxes painted white), and future warmer (2040–2099; nest boxes painted black) climate conditions. In each year we measure adult emergence phenology, linear body size, body mass, fat content, and survival. 3. Bees in the warming treatment exhibit delayed emergence and a substantial increase in phenological variance. Increases in tempe...