Grassland & Savanna Area (SECAS Goal Trends)

<p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>Yearly trend</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;">Grassland and savanna area declined by 0.31% per year from 2011-2021. Area declined in most counties (76%). Increases typically occurred in counties with major ecosystem-based restoration efforts (e.g., range-wide longleaf pine, woodlands in Missouri and Arkansas.)</p><p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>On track to meet SECAS goal</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;">No. The decline of about 1.24% every 4 years is not enough to reach the SECAS goal of a 1% increase every 4 years.</p><p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>Data source</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;">Modeled indicator based on<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.mrlc.gov/data">National Land Cover Database (NLCD)</a>land cover and canopy cover,<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://landfire.gov/bps.php">LANDFIRE Biophysical Settings,</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://tpwd.texas.gov/landwater/land/programs/landscape-ecology/ems/">Texas Ecological Mapping Systems,</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.wildlifedepartment.com/lands-and-minerals/oklahoma-ecological-system-mapping">Oklahoma Ecological Systems Map.</a>The model starts with areas that were historically grassland or savanna based on LANDFIRE. It then uses landcover and canopy cover to identify current area for each year. For areas of historic grassland, it uses a canopy cover threshold of 0%. For areas of historic savanna, it uses a canopy cover threshold of 60%. In Texas and Oklahoma, we further reduced the estimate by removing mesquite-invaded areas that weren’t currently functioning as grassland or savanna.<span style="background-attachment:initial;background-clip:initial;background-image:initial;background-origin:initial;background-position:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-size:initial;">This approach is similar to parts of the grasslands and savannas Blueprint indicator, but includes a number of changes more focused on trend estimation.</span></p><p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>Confidence in trend</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;">High. Trend is statistically significant and shows consistent declines across all five years with data (2011, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021).</p><p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>Interpretation</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;">This is a coarse indicator of the overall extent of grassland and savanna. It includes a wide range of quality, from restored areas and remnants, to temporary grasslands created by forestry, to highly altered areas of pasture. The steep declines mirror large declines seen in species that depend on grasslands and savannas, like pollinators and grassland birds. Grassland declines throughout the SECAS region are occurring on both public and private lands.</p><p style="margin:0in;"></p><p style="margin:0in;">For most SECAS states, the major source of grassland and savanna loss was excess tree growth. The exceptions to this were: 1) Missouri, where the biggest loss was to row crop, and 2) Texas and Florida, where the biggest loss was to urban growth. Despite steep declines, improvements in places like the longleaf pine range, historic woodlands in Missouri and Arkansas, and tallgrass prairie in Northeast Oklahoma show that focused conservation attention can reverse declines in specific places.</p><p style="margin:12pt 0in 4pt;"><strong>Other information available</strong></p><p style="margin:0in;"><span style="background-attachment:initial;background-clip:initial;background-image:initial;background-origin:initial;background-position:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-size:initial;">Tabular data associated with the chart above are available in Appendix I.</span></p>