Data and Code for: The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic
growth. We use variation in the
predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the
impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find
that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita
GDP by 5.5%. One-third of the reduction
arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity
growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced
the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during
1980-2010.