Climate-driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

The climate-driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intra-specific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographic distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) during past extremes, present-time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of pe...