Fiscal performance and elections in Brazil: a comparative analysis of local governments

Abstract: The paper's goal is to analyze the relationship between fiscal performance and re-election for mayors in Brazil based on multiple dimensions and a comprehensive time period (1997 to 2012). The research tests two main hypothesis: i) the first-term mayor tends to achieve a better fiscal performance due to the chance of re-election; ii) the mayor who has a better performance tends to be rewarded by the voters with his re-election. The multivariate regression models refute the hypothesis that the expected re-election would generate different fiscal performance. Regarding the second, the efforts to raise tax negatively affect in his/hers likelihood of electoral success, whereas the electorate rewards the ones that invest more.