Phylogenetic inference of reciprocal effects between geographic range evolution and diversification

Geographic characters---traits relating to the spatial distribution of
a species---may both affect and be affected by processes associated
with lineage birth and death. This is potentially confounding to
comparative analyses of species distributions because current models
do not allow reciprocal interactions between the evolution of traits
and the growth of phylogenetic trees. Here we introduce a
likelihood-based approach to estimating region-dependent rates of
speciation, extinction, and range evolution from a phylogeny, using a
new model in which these processes are interdependent. We demonstrate
the method with simulation tests that accurately recover parameters
relating to the mode of speciation and source-sink dynamics. We then
apply it to the evolution of habitat occupancy in Californian plant
communities, where we find higher rates of speciation in chaparral
than in forests and evidence for expanding habitat tolerances.