Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
收藏NBER2006-05-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
下载链接：
https://www.nber.org/papers/w12200
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资源简介：
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient
提供机构：
美国国家经济研究局
创建时间：
2006-05-01
