Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). […]

在全球气候变暖的过程中，西伯利亚针叶林预计将向北方扩张。然而，关于林线生态过渡过程、时间序列及其相关的气候反馈机制，仍未得到充分理解。在本研究中，我们推出了基于个体的空间解析模型——'Larix Vegetation Simulator' (LAVESI)，旨在模拟西伯利亚落叶松（Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR.）林分动态，以期加深我们对气候变化下林线历史和未来移动的认识。模型中融入并调整了相关过程（如生长、种子生产和扩散、建立和死亡率），这些过程主要基于文献中的观测数据。局部敏感性分析的结果证实了模型参数化稳健性的可靠性，提供了相对较小的敏感性值。我们通过模拟现代气候条件下的树群，对整个泰梅尔半岛（西伯利亚中北部，大约64-80° N；92-119° E）进行了模型测试。