US House 2026 pre-registered seat forecast: cutoff bundle (2026-11-02)

Version cutoff-20261102-en1 (2026-11-03 KST). This version adds unofficial English translations of four documents of this record, made and timestamped before any result of the 2026 general election was available: the consolidated pre-registration v1.0, the benchmark rules v0.4, author decision record 16 and the cutoff bundle README. The Korean originals remain the binding record; each translation gives its source file and SHA-256 in its first line. The five files of the previous version are unchanged, and no rule, input, computation or score is changed. Added files: the four translations (files ending in _EN.md); NOTES_20261103_EN.md (what this version adds, a wording correction in the cutoff README, an independent check of this record, and a known limitation); TRANSLATION_SPEC_v0_1.md (translation rules and glossary); SHA256SUMS_translation_20261103.txt, the hash list of these six files (SHA-256 bb016259b26129776603ad48ffcc579eb73f04e86a3be5e8f92a11fa72a3b45a); its OpenTimestamps pending proof (.ots, stamped 2026-11-03 11:03 UTC) and completed proof (.complete.ots, Bitcoin block 974389); and the verification record OTS_verification_translation_20261103.txt. Cutoff record of a pre-registered forecast of the 2026 US House elections. - Rules freeze (2026-10-31 KST): hash list SHA256SUMS_freeze_20261031.txt, SHA-256 016c119ff49a09cdbb50ad1b5b53fbb7c8bed252e47b00808935046fcdaec4c2; OpenTimestamps proof attested in Bitcoin block 973898.- Input cutoff: 2026-11-02 04:59:00 UTC.- Cutoff hash list: SHA256SUMS_cutoff_20261102.txt, SHA-256 28718e08e7a4dd8c63cac33cd55b2880ea7a4c24d449d29b5bb30458831a372a; OpenTimestamps proof attested in Bitcoin block 974230 (pending and completed proofs and a verification record are included as separate files).- Archive: US2026_prereg_cutoff_bundle_20261102.zip, SHA-256 82c6beb3f6795eb0fc61755147b84ac385d57c10731b95178d30d8c533dea301; 298 files = public files of the freeze bundle (180) and the cutoff bundle (110), plus both hash lists, manifests and proofs. Primary forecast (PRIMARY_M0_lam0.5_sigpred): national input Silver Bulletin generic ballot average D+8.78 (2026-11-01); expected Democratic seats 229.5 (SD 11.8, median 229, 90% interval 212-250); probability of a Democratic majority (218+ seats) 0.853. All 16 pre-specified runs, district probabilities and the numerical audit (521/521 checks passed) are included. Listed by label and SHA-256 only: paid Silver Bulletin data, page copies and collection procedures; market prices, raw market responses and computed market values. Evaluation against certified results will follow as a separate bundle. Most documents are in Korean; README_CUTOFF_BUNDLE_20261102.md starts with an English summary, and English translations of four core documents are included from version cutoff-20261102-en1 (see above). Prepared with extensive assistance from GPT 6.1 Sol (OpenAI) and Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic); the author directed and reviewed the work and is responsible for the content. Licence: CC BY 4.0 for this record. Third-party material (official candidate lists, contract identifiers) remains under its sources' terms.