Changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China

1.    Direct effects of climate change (i.e., temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns, and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behavior, fire seasons, and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simplified or neglected in the direct climate-fire relationship models and dynamic global vegetation models. This may result in high uncertainties associated with existing projections of fire regimes for climate change scenarios. Moreover, few studies have examined fire regime predictions beyond the 21st century, and consequently, how the fire regimes of boreal forests would respond to climate change at the long-term (>100 years) is not clear.

2.    We develop a coupled modeling framework integrating direct and indirect effects of climate change to predict fire occurrence probability...