Replication Data for: Welfare by Design: Public Responses to the Distribution of Old Age Pensions

Abstract: A basic premise of research on welfare state spending is that electoral incentives mat-ter, with voters backing program expansion and opposing retrenchment. However, the evidence supporting this premise is mixed. Departing from previous studies, we argue that these apparent null effects arise from an emphasis on the generosity of social bene-fits rather than their distribution. Shifting attention to the latter, we argue that individ-ual preferences over the allocation of welfare spending depend on their relationship to economic vulnerability. Individuals in secure economic situations support schemes with benefits proportional to contributions, while those in more vulnerable positions favour systems based on recipient need. These heterogeneous preferences translate into public evaluations of policymaker performance, providing a pathway for the electoral connection. We test this argument in two stages. First, we use data from the European Social Survey to examine how individual precarity shapes preferences for needs-based versus contributory pensions. Second, we use the Executive Approval Database to as-sess how composition of pension expenditures and perceptions of debt affect govern-ment support across eleven European welfare states from 1986 to 2019. Taken togeth-er, Study findingsresults provide evidence consistent with our theoretical expectations. Results highlight the micro-level foundations of policymakers’ electoral incentives and provide a path forward for specifying connections between the allocation of social pol-icy spending and mass politics. (2026)