Data for: Rapid shifts in Arctic tundra species’ distributions and inter-specific range overlap under future climate change

Aim: The Arctic is one of the planet’s most rapidly warming regions, with
trends expected to intensify in the future. Projections of shifts in
species distributional ranges under future climate change are thus far
lacking for most vertebrate species using the Arctic tundra. Our aim was
to assess possible climate-induced changes in distributional ranges and
inter-specific overlap of an Arctic species assemblage within the world’s
largest land-based protected area. Location: During 1979-2013 location
data of eight Arctic birds and mammals: Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus),
Arctic hare (Lepus arcticus), Arctic wolf (Canis lupus arctos), muskox
(Ovibos moschatus), polar bear (Ursus maritimus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus
muta), snow bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis), and snowy owl (Bubo
scandiacus) were collected in the Northeast Greenland National Park.
Methods: The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and Schoener’s D niche
overlap index were used to assess shifts and changes in overlap of
species-specific distributions under recent (1979-2013) and future
(2061-2080; representative concentration pathways [RCPs] 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5)
bioclimatic conditions. Results: Species distributions were projected to
shift northward and upwards across all scenarios, and at higher rates than
previously reported. Future distributions were also forecasted to become
spatially less clustered and to expand in size for all species.
Species-specific shifts in distribution ranges altered inter-specific
overlap, most notably by an increase in overlap under scenario RCP 8.5.
Main conclusions: The rapid shifts in distribution ranges detected here
underline that climate change impacts are most pronounced in areas with
higher levels of warming, leading to accelerated shifts in species’ ranges
towards the poles. However, the concomitant range expansions we found may
suggest that future climatic conditions in north-east Greenland may not
have such a detrimental impact on the distribution of cold-adapted species
as generally expected, at least in the near future.