Modeling Resistance Trends to Inform Stewardship Policies 2

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the most pressing global health threats of our time. As bacteria and other pathogens evolve to resist the drugs designed to kill them, infections become harder to treat, leading to prolonged illness, higher medical costs, and increased mortality. In many low- and middle-income countries, including Nigeria, the lack of timely data and predictive tools makes it difficult for health systems to respond effectively.

Ducit Blue Solutions, through its work with the Commonwealth Partnerships for Antimicrobial Stewardship (CwPAMS) and the Fleming Fund, has been at the forefront of AMR surveillance and capacity building across sub-Saharan Africa. This proposed research builds on that foundation by using advanced data modeling to analyze resistance trends across pathogens, regions, and time periods.

By accessing the AMR dataset, this project will develop predictive models that identify emerging resistance patterns and forecast future risks. These insights will be used to inform antimicrobial stewardship policies, guide clinical decision-making, and support public health planning.

This research will achieve the following:
1. By identifying resistance trends early, clinicians can make better-informed decisions about which antibiotics to prescribe, reducing treatment failures and improving recovery rates.

2. The models will help stewardship programs target the most problematic resistance mechanisms and pathogens, optimizing antibiotic use and minimizing unnecessary prescriptions.

3. Health authorities will gain actionable insights into AMR hotspots and trends, enabling more effective interventions, resource allocation, and outbreak preparedness.

4. Integrating predictive analytics into national and regional surveillance systems will enhance data-driven decision-making, build resilience, and support long-term health system planning.