DataSheet1_Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread.pdf

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.

药物和非药物干预措施（NPIs）对于控制COVID-19疫情至关重要。它们与自愿性的健康保护行为相辅相成，构建了风险感知、行为与疾病传播之间的复杂交互作用。本研究探讨了自愿性健康保护行为及疫苗接种意愿对长期动态的影响。我们分析了不同层次的强制性NPIs如何决定个体在自愿行为中的灵活性运用。若强制性NPIs过于薄弱，COVID-19的发病率将激增，预示着在个体作出反应之前，将面临高发病率和死亡率；若过于严格，一旦放宽限制，预期将出现反弹波，对向地方病过渡构成挑战。相反，适度的强制性NPIs为个体提供了适应其谨慎程度的时机与空间，从而有效减轻疾病传播。与之相辅以高疫苗接种率，这亦为限制关注的Omicron变种的负面影响提供了坚实的途径。总体而言，我们的研究凸显了适当强制性NPIs对于最大化个体自愿行为在疫情控制中影响的重要性。