Global agriculture shows limited evidence of a pollinator-driven yield decline to date

Marcelo A. Aizen, Gabriela R. Gleiser, Carolina L. Morales, Agustín Sáez, Lawrence D. Harder. Global agriculture shows limited evidence of a pollinator-driven yield decline to date. This repository contains the data and R scripts required to reproduce the analyses and the figures presented in the paper. All analyses were conducted using R version 4.0.2. Data 1. data_pol_lim.csv This file lists 107 effect sizes (yi), their variances (vi), and replication levels (ni), quantifying pollination limitation across 52 studies (column A) and covering 30 pollinator-dependent crops and crop species (columns B-C), as compiled and analyzed by Sáez et al. (2022). It also includes information on pollinator dependence (column D), reported by Siopa et al. (2024) and compatibility system (column E), as documented by Sáez et al. (2022). 2. phylo_pol_lim.tre This file contains the phylogenetic tree of the 30 crop species included in the meta-analysis of pollination limitation in relation to pollinator dependence, as well as in the comparative analysis of pollinator dependence between self-compatible and self-incompatible crops. 3. data_yield_6123.csv This file includes 4,139 country–crop records containing the mean yield growth and the slope of the regression of yield growth over time for the period 1961–2023, estimated from FAO data (FAOSTAT 2025). Pollinator dependence data are provided by Klein et al. (2007) and Siopa et al. (2024). The variables included in this dataset are: country (column A), ISO3166 country code (column B), continent (column C), crop (column D), crop species (column E), pollinator dependence (column F), growth form (column G), harvested organ (column H), initial year of the time series (column I), final year of the time series (column J), scaled log10 cumulative cultivated area (column K), mean yield growth (column L), and the slope of the regression of yield growth over time (column M). 4. data_yield_9223.csv This file includes 6,199 country–crop records containing the mean yield growth and the slope of the regression of yield growth over time for the period 1992–2023, estimated from FAO data (FAOSTAT 2025). Pollinator dependence data are provided by Klein et al. (2007) and Siopa et al. (2024). The variables included in this dataset are: country (column A), ISO3166 country code (column B), continent (column C), crop (column D), crop species (column E), pollinator dependence (column F), growth form (column G), harvested organ (column H), initial year of the time series (column I), final year of the time series (column J), scaled log10 cumulative cultivated area (column K), mean yield growth (column L), and the slope of the regression of yield growth over time (column M). 5. phylo_yield.tre This file contains the complete phylogenetic tree of all the crop species included in the statistical analyses of mean annual yield growth and temporal trends (slopes) in yield growth in relation to pollinator dependence. Scripts 1. script_pol_lim This R script performs the analyses and generates the figures for the meta-analysis of pollination limitation in relation to pollinator dependence, as well as the comparative analysis of pollinator dependence between self-compatible and self-incompatible crops. 2. script_analyses_yield This R script performs the statistical analyses of mean annual yield growth and temporal trends (slopes) in yield growth in relation to pollinator dependence. 3. script_figures_yield This R script generates the figures derived from the statistical analyses of mean annual yield growth and temporal trends (slopes) in yield growth, examined in relation to pollinator dependence. 4. lme4_phylo_setup R function written by Li and Bolker (2019) to carry out phylogenetically-controlled generalized linear mixed-effects models as described in the main text of the article. References FAOSTAT. 2025. Data available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en. Last accessed May-5-2025. Klein A-M, Vaissière BE, Cane JH, et al. 2007. Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 274: 303–313. doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3721 Li M, Bolker B. 2019. wzmli/phyloglmm: first release of phylogenetic comparative analysis in lme4- verse. Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/2639887. doi:10.5281/zenodo.2639887 Sáez A, Aguilar R, Ashworth L, et al. 2022. Managed honeybees decrease pollination limitation in self-compatible but not in self-incompatible crops. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 289: 20220086. doi:10.1098/rspb.2022.0086 Siopa C, Carvalheiro LG, Castro H, Loureiro J, Castro S. 2024. Animal-pollinated crops and cultivars—A quantitative assessment of pollinator dependence values and evaluation of methodological approaches. Journal of Applied Ecology 61: 1279–1288. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.14634