Byers_et_al_Drought_Electricity_DECIPHeRFlowSims

This dataset provides an ensemble of hydrological model projections for 24 UK gauging stations covering three time slices (baseline 1974-2004, near future 2020-2050 and far future 2070-2100). Daily flow timeseries are simulated using the hydrological model DECIPHeR (Coxon et al, 2019). The forcing data consist of daily observed rainfall and potential evapo-transpiration to calibrate the model against observed flows. An ensemble of 100 hydrological model parameterisations are then forced by 100 climate simulations for three time-slices from a large set of present and future meteorological timeseries for the UK (Guillod et al, 2018). These simulations have been used to investigate the price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of meteorological droughts, river flows and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices.