BeBOD projections of prevalence, and years lived with disability for 33 causes, 2013-2040

Belgian National Burden of Disease Study

Projections

To produce these projections, we used a Bayesian modeling approach via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to analyze past trends and extend them into future estimates. An automated model selection process identified the best-fitting model for each disease, ensuring robust and accurate projections. Additionally, population projections from the Federal Planning Bureau were incorporated to account for expected changes in population structure, allowing us to anticipate shifts in disease prevalence and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) across age, sex, and regional categories. More details on the applied methodology can be found in the BeBOD projection protocol.

Estimates of the burden of disease

Prevalence

Our estimates are based on the GBD cause list for morbidity by IHME. We first select for each of the 33 causes, the most suitable local data source as described in the general protocol. Next, we calculate the prevalence by year, region, age, and sex, to obtain a prevalence for each of the included diseases.

Years Lived with Disability

In addition to calculating the number of prevalent cases, we also calculate Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) as a measure of morbidity. YLDs are calculated as the product of the number of prevalent cases with the disability weight (DW), averaged over the different health states of the disease. The DWs reflect the relative reduction in quality of life, on a scale from 0 (perfect health) to 1 (death). We calculate YLDs using the Global Burden of Disease DWs.