Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model

ObjectiveTo predict the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors among residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou City, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control measures for CVD. MethodsThe data of residents aged 35–75 years old in Gulou district, Yunlong district, and Quanshan district of Xuzhou city collected during the baseline survey of the Jiangsu Province Comprehensive Prevention and Control Project for Cardiovascular Diseases in 2022–2023 were used. Information such as general data, body height, body weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was gathered through questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. The prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model was used to assess the 10-year risk of CVD among the surveyed subjects. ResultsThe 12 256 residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou consisted of 3 956 (32.28%) males and 8 300 (67.72%) females. Males showed higher age, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, TG, smoking rate, hypertension prevalence, diabetes prevalence, and antihypertensive medication use than females (all P P P P χ2trend = 908.35, P P > 0.05). ConclusionsThe 10-year CVD risk is high in the residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city. Males show higher risk, proportion of high-risk populations in different age groups, and aggregation of risk factors than females.