Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19

Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the
spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was
driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to
localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and
contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening
decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we
consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research
university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network
epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing
movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via
reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent
strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on
spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on
campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than
labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network
structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a
workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly
accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can
provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in
conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.