Integrating local ecological knowledge, ecological monitoring, and computer simulation to evaluate conservation outcomes Conservation Letters

Successful conservation of long-lived species requires reliable understanding of long-term trends and historical baselines. We present a framework for evaluating abundance trends and conservation outcomes for long-lived marine species by integrating local ecological knowledge (LEK), ecological monitoring, and computer simulation, tested on a case-study of long-lived and heavily exploited green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Eastern Pacific. Models fit to LEK and monitoring data indicate that turtle abundance is increasing, but only after ∼40 years of safeguarding the species’ nesting and foraging habitats in Mexico. However, current abundance is at ∼60% of baseline levels and historic population structure has not been reestablished, indicating the need for sustained, long-term conservation actions. We demonstrate the potential of linking LEK and ecological science to provide critical information for conservation, by establishing reference baselines and gauging population status with a long-term historical perspective, while promoting equitable and sustainable futures.