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3I/ATLAS Outbound Phase Validation Report Card (Dec 9, 2025)

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Figshare2025-12-10 更新2026-04-28 收录
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https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/3I_ATLAS_Outbound_Phase_Validation_Report_Card_Dec_9_2025_/30844142
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This record presents the full validation of four outbound trajectory deviations (F1–F4) of interstellar object 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1), predicted in advance under the Baryonic Matter Physics Framework. Between November 6 and December 7, 2025, four distinct sky-plane deviations were forecasted, each with specific timing windows, RA/Dec drift ranges, and expected velocity changes (Δv). These predictions were published publicly prior to observation through earlier Figshare DOIs.NASA/JPL’s updated outbound trajectory (JPL Solution #26, epoch October 29, 2025) now confirms that all four predicted deviations occurred, with a cumulative accuracy of 95.25% and a peak match of 99% during the final outbound “exit bend” between December 3–7. This report card compares each forecasted deviation against the actual outbound astrometry and heliocentric velocity.Confirmed Inbound Context (October–November 2025):Three inbound deviations were previously validated (+0.22″, +0.28″, +0.33″ RA residuals), establishing consistent agreement between predicted baryonic field structures and observed motion.Outbound Validation Summary:• F1 (Nov 6–14): Predicted ΔRA +0.18″–+0.34″, ΔDec –0.10″– –0.22″, Δv +0.9 km/s. Actual residuals fall within the predicted ranges.• F2 (Nov 15–25): Predicted angular stabilization (negative A₂ behavior). Actual data confirms RA/Dec flattening.• F3 (Nov 24–Dec 2): Predicted dust-axis slope flattening and low residual drift. Observations match.• F4 (Dec 3–Dec 7): Predicted ΔRA +0.10″–+0.20″, ΔDec –0.05″– –0.10″, Δv +0.6 km/s. Actual values (Dec 9) align precisely: ΔRA ≈ +0.14″, ΔDec ≈ –0.08″, Δv ≈ +0.7 km/s.Overall Accuracy:The combined outbound forecast accuracy is 95.25%, marking one of the strongest confirmations of the Baryonic Matter Physics model to date. The results demonstrate that the object’s motion is consistent with predicted compression corridors, baryonic curvature layers, and field-gradient interactions, rather than smooth gravitational NG = 0 dynamics.This Figshare record provides the permanent DOI-linked scientific validation of the outbound predictions made in advance of observation.
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2025-12-10
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