Replication Dataset and Code for: "Construction and Validation of a Synthetic Social Conflict Index: Empirical Evidence for Argentina, 1995–2015"
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This dataset provides replication materials for the article "Construction and Validation of a Synthetic Social Conflict Index: Empirical Evidence for Argentina, 1995–2015" (Social Indicators Research, under review). Overview: This repository contains all data and replication code associated with the article. The paper constructs and validates the first PCA-based synthetic social conflict index for Argentina (1995–2015) using ten observable conflict indicators, models it with socioeconomic variables via ARIMA regression (R² = 0.814), and estimates a conflict index for Brazil (2003–2015) by transferring the measurement model. Files: - README.md (this file) - LICENSE.txt (CC BY 4.0 data; MIT code) - data/ [argentinaconflictindicators19952015.csv, argentinasocialindicators19952015.csv, argentinaeconomicindicators19952015.csv, argentinaconflictindexresults19952015.csv, brazilsocialindicators20032015.csv, brazileconomicindicators20032015.csv, brazilconflictindexestimated20032015.csv] - code/replicationscript.R (full R replication script) - docs/CODEBOOK.md (variable definitions and methodological notes) Key outputs: PC1 conflict variance explained: 26.55%; OLS model R²: 0.8142; Adjusted R²: 0.7523; F-statistic: 13.15. How to replicate: 1. Unzip and set working directory. 2. Run replicationscript.R (requires forecast, psych, tseries, ggplot2, dplyr, car). 3. Outputs: index plots, regression results, Brazil estimates. Data sources: Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría, CEPAL-CEPALSTAT, INDEC, FMI, BCRA (full details in CODEBOOK.md). Software: R 3.6.1+ (packages listed in script). Contact: Débora González Celdrán, Departament de Finances, Universitat de Barcelona (dgonzalez@ub.edu).
