Forecast Eurovision Voting预测欧洲电视网投票

这项比赛要求参赛者预测5月25日，27日和29日在挪威举行的欧洲歌唱大赛的投票情况。提示1
我们建议浏览Tim Cocx博士的“欧洲歌唱大赛分析” 。它包含一个有趣的文档-“距离矩阵”-代表一个抽象的（非地理）距离，该距离表示国家在过去的比赛中互相授予多少分，其中较短的距离表示较高的交换分数，较大的距离表示较少的交换分数交换点。您可能认为值得利用或基于类似的概念制作自己的最新版本

提示2
解决这一竞争的一种方法可能是，计算出A国通常在4到10票之间分配B国（准确的得分取决于演出的质量）。一旦确定了所有国家/地区的这些范围，就可以将投注市场数据用作绩效质量的代理。

提示3
如果您正在考虑扩充我们的数据集，则可能需要尝试跟踪每个投票国中外籍人口的数据。

感谢斯蒂芬妮·韦恩（Stephanie Wayne）参加了这场比赛。

我们还要感谢Betfair Pty Ltd提供的投注价格数据

This competition requires participants to predict the voting results of the Eurovision Song Contest held in Norway on May 25, 27 and 29.
Hint 1
We recommend reviewing Dr. Tim Cocx's *Eurovision Song Contest Analysis*. It includes an intriguing document—the "distance matrix"—which represents an abstract (non-geographic) distance that quantifies how many points countries awarded each other in past competitions, where shorter distances denote higher point exchanges and longer distances correspond to fewer exchanged points. You may find it worthwhile to leverage this concept or create your own updated version based on similar principles.
Hint 2
One potential approach to this competition is to calculate that Country A typically allocates between 4 and 10 points to Country B (the exact score depends on the quality of the performance). Once these ranges for all countries/regions are determined, betting market data can be used as a proxy for performance quality.
Hint 3
If you are considering augmenting our dataset, you may want to attempt tracking data on the foreign-born population in each voting country.
We thank Stephanie Wayne for participating in this competition.
We would also like to thank Betfair Pty Ltd for providing the betting price data.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集用于预测2010年欧洲电视网（Eurovision）投票，包含历史决赛（1998年起）和半决赛（2004年起）的数据，以及2010年的参赛信息。数据涵盖投票模式、投注赔率、歌曲和艺术家详情，旨在帮助参赛者构建预测模型。