Fractions of disrupting recombination events that occur in lineages ancestral to members of the outgroup clade in yeast ARGs, from simple coalescent simulations.

Each row represents results from a simulated genomic region in which a given set of sequences forms an outgroup clade in the genealogy. Shown is the probability that a recombination event at the boundary of the region occurs in a lineage ancestral to members of the outgroup clade, when the outgroup clade has size and the total sample size is . We assumed a structured coalescent model with five islands of equal size, allowing random mating within islands and symmetric migration between islands, governed by the population migration parameter . Probabilities were estimated by importance sampling, except for the model which was calculated exactly.