Probabilistic projections of mean sea level change in Finland by 2100

Paper describing the methods used to calculate these projections: Pellikka, H., Johansson, M. M., Nordman, M., and Ruosteenoja, K.: Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-230, 2023.

This dataset includes probability distributions of projected mean sea level in Finland in 2030, 2040, ... 2100, as well as time series of projected mean sea level 2005-2100. Data is provided for 13 tide gauge locations and 3 emission scenarios: low (RCP2.6 / SSP1-2.6), medium (RCP4.5 / SSP2-4.5), and high (RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5).

There are two data packages, distributions.zip and timeseries.zip. The data files included in these packages are tab- or space-delimited text files with the file extension .dat.

All filenames start with a three-character code xxx that determines the tide gauge (1-letter symbol) and the emission scenario (2 digits). For example:

v26 means Vaasa, low emission scenario (RCP2.6 / SSP1-2.6)
e45 means Helsinki, medium emission scenario (RCP4.5 / SSP2-4.5)
t85 means Turku, high emission scenario (RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5)

The letter symbols and locations of the tide gauges are, from north to south along the coast:

a - Kemi (65.67 N, 24.52 E)
o - Oulu (65.04 N, 25.42 E)
b - Raahe (64.67 N, 24.41 E)
p - Pietarsaari (63.71 N, 22.69 E)
v - Vaasa (63.08 N, 21.57 E)
s - Kaskinen (62.34 N, 21.21 E)
m - Mäntyluoto (61.59 N, 21.46 E)
r - Rauma (61.13 N, 21.44 E)
t - Turku (60.43 N, 22.1 E)
d - Degerby (60.03 N, 20.38 E)
h - Hanko (59.82 N, 22.98 E)
e - Helsinki (60.15 N, 24.96 E)
f - Hamina (60.56 N, 27.18 E)

1) distributions.zip > xxx_fitdistr_yyyy.dat
These files include the probability distribution (probability density function) of projected mean sea level in year yyyy (2030, 2040, ... 2100). There are two columns: sea level and probability. Sea level values are millimetres in the Finnish N2000 height system.

2) timeseries.zip > xxx_timeseries.dat
These files include the time series of projected mean sea level in 2005-2100. The files have 8 columns: year and 7 sea level values representing different percentiles of the probability distribution. The percentiles are 1%, 5%, 17%, 50% (median), 83%, 95%, 99%. Sea level values are centimetres in the Finnish N2000 height system.

Please note that all projections for years other than 2100 are indicative and based on a simple 2nd order fit made to the current rate of mean sea level change and the projected mean sea level in 2100. In other words, the projections for intermediate years are based on the 2100 projections assuming constant acceleration in mean sea level change rates.

Example figures distributions.png and timeseries.png are included to illustrate the data. The Matlab script slrfinland_figures.m used to produce these figures is also included.