Data from: Drivers of population dynamics of at-risk populations change with pathogen arrival

Successful wildlife conservation in an era of global change requires
understanding determinants of species population growth. However,
when populations are faced with novel stressors, factors
associated with healthy populations can change, necessitating
shifting conservation strategies. For example, emerging
infectious diseases can cause conditions previously beneficial to host
populations to increase disease impacts. Here, we paired
a population dataset of 265 colonies of the federally endangered
Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) with 50.7 logger-years of
environmental data to explore factors that affected colony response
to white-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging fungal disease. We
found variation in colony responses to WNS, ranging from
extirpation to stabilization. The severity of WNS impacts was associated
with hibernaculum temperature, as colonies of cold hibernacula declined
more severely than those in relatively warm hibernacula, an
association that arose following pathogen emergence.
Interestingly, this association was opposite that of a sympatric bat
species, the little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), illustrating
that environmental dependence of disease can vary by species in a
multi-host community. Simulating future colony dynamics suggests that
most extirpations have already occurred, as the pathogen has been
present for several years in most colonies, and that relatively
small colonies are more susceptible to extirpation. Overall, this
study illustrates that emerging infectious diseases can change
the factors associated with host population growth, including
through novel environmental associations that vary by host
species. Consideration of these shifting associations and
differences between impacted species will be essential to the conservation
of host communities challenged by emerging infectious disease.