Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in-depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972-2013) of Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatiall...