Interaction of sequence data and paleogeographic priors in biogeographic dating: How could biological data inform time-constrained geological models?

Biological and geographic patterns and processes are linked such that biological data hold information on paleogeographical patterns and processes. Here, we aimed to test Biogeographic dating as a methodological framework for the integration of biological, paleontological, and geological data to test paleogeographic hypotheses. In Biogeographic dating, both forms of data are specified and analyzed simultaneously. We evaluate how uncertainty and accuracy in both types of datasets affect the inference of divergence times used as a proxy for generating or testing geological models. We used data simulation to generate a paleogeographic scenario and a nuclear sequence dataset for lineages whose evolution is correlated with geological patterns. Then, gene flow was simulated across landscape units, such that biological patterns inferred from sequence data would deviate from simulated times of paleogeographic change. Under those two scenarios, we specified broad, incorrect, and accurate geological priors. These various scenarios were analyzed through Biogeographic dating analyses run in RevBayes and compared with our simulations. In doing so, we test the potential for well-calibrated phylogenies and the impact of accuracy and uncertainty in geological priors for estimating paleogeographic events.