H2020 773782-COASTAL MAL03 Scenarios for the Norrström-Baltic region

The scenarios are developed based on projected climate and socio-economic changes, following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for the region.

The Norrström-Baltic SD model analyzes possible future shifts in the annual average conditions of sectoral and natural water system interactions. Such shifts are evaluated based on recent annual averages reflecting the condition of system components. Parameters taken into account are, amongst others, sectoral water availability, water fluxes between sectors and the corresponding nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) exchanges, coastal runoff and nitrogen and phosphorous loads ending up in the Baltic Sea. 

An overview of the model input variables and the parameters that are identified as system external uncertainties that may affect the behavior of the model:

- Precipitation: climate change

- Agricultural land: Development policies and market forces, food security and trade regulations, population growth and corresponding food demand/diet changes

- Built-up land: Development policies and market forces, population growth, regional urbanization level, tourism expansion level

- Forest land: Mitigation policies on climate change (i.e. afforestation and/or reforestation to maintain/enhance carbon capture and storage capacity), socio-economic developments leading to sectoral land competition (i.e. deforestation)

- Open lands and wetlands: Policies and market forces supporting social and economic development in the region

A total of 5 scenarios were developed for the Norrström/Baltic Sea case. One of them represents the ‘Base case’ conditions, while the rest are rooted in the combination of a certain SSP with a climate scenario linked to a certain RCP. The following overview shows the combinations used during the scenario building process:
- Scenario 1: SSP1 + RCP 4.5
- Scenario 2: SSP2 + RCP 4.5
- Scenario 3: SSP4 + RCP 4.5
- Scenario 4: SSP5 + RCP 4.5
- Base Case scenario: Continuation into the future of the past-recent long-term average conditions in relation to hydro-climate and land use variables in the SD model.

All the scenarios developed for the Norrström-Baltic region are linked to a climate scenario corresponding with RCP4.5, because projected patterns and changes for climate variables under this climate scenario were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in the region than other RCPs. The period 2010-2100 is compared with the normal mean for the period 1961-1990. Each year is compared separately with the long-term annual average precipitation.

The xsls file is organized as follows. It comprises three sheets:

Precipitation RCP with annual data of changes in annual precipitation (in percentage), precipitation (in million of m3/year and in mm/year);

Land cover RCPs and SSPs with scenario data on land cover, annual change in land cover (in percentage), annual land cover areas for the Norrström water management district area, land dover area average for teh Norrström water management district area and average change in land cover compared to the long-term average (in percentage);

Input data model with the four input variables (precipitation change rate in hydro-climate scenarios, urban growth rate in socioeconomic scenarios, forest land change rate in socioeconomic scenarios and agricultural land change rate in socioeconomic scenarios) and their change for each scenario (expressed in percentage).