Replication Data for: Winning or Losing Hearts and Minds? Evidence from Afghanistan on how Leadership Decapitation affects Civilian Perceptions of Government Efficacy

While the efficacy of leadership decapitation is much debated, a critical aspect that remains unexplored is whether the tactic contributes to "winning the hearts and minds" of civilian populations – a vital contributor to the success of most counterterrorism campaigns. Although responsible state actors often publicize targeted killings of militant leaders as significant ‘wins’, this study explores how targeted killings affect civilians' perceptions of government efficacy. We argue that decapitation efforts, which involve local security actors, are more likely to improve perceptions of local government efficacy compared to efforts that are driven by external actors. We test our argument using data on leadership losses of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) leaders in Afghanistan between 2015-2018, and public opinion survey data. Our findings suggest that targeting efforts driven largely by Afghan forces improved civilian perceptions of the government's ability to provide security, while US-led targeting failed to shift civilian attitudes.