From Imbalance to Coordination? Tracking the Agriculture-Tourism-Ecology Nexus in a Coffee-Dominated Village Using Coupled System Modeling and Cross-Validation

Under the dual pressures of global climate change and ecological degradation, the coordination of agriculture, tourism, and ecosystems has become a key pathway for regional sustainable development. However, the agricultural expansion and tourism development in ecologically sensitive areas often lead to ecological degradation and resource conflicts. Therefore, quantifying the coupling coordination degree of the "Agriculture-Tourism-Ecology" (ATE) system and identifying the obstructive factors is of significant importance. This study focuses on Xinzai Village in the Karst region of southwestern China, Yunnan, constructing a comprehensive indicator framework for the ATE system. Based on a time series data from 2009 to 2024, the Entropy Weight Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model and the Obstruction Degree model are employed to analyze the system dynamics, and the results are cross-validated through energy value sensitivity analysis. The study conclusions are as follows: (1) Subsystem development trajectories show differences; agriculture has experienced three stages: slow growth, rapid expansion, and fluctuating stability while maintaining a long-term lead; tourism has gradually increased but is sensitive to external shocks; ecology shows a U-shaped trend yet continues to lag behind, which is the main constraint of the system; (2) The coupling coordination degree has transitioned from moderate discoordination to slight discoordination, with obstructive factors evolving over time—initially dominated by agricultural inefficiency and ecological pressure, then shifting focus to insufficient tourism infrastructure in the medium term, and recently impacted by the compounded effects of the pandemic and chronic bottlenecks; (3) Energy value analysis cross-validated the reliability of coupling coordination results; (4) Theoretically, integrating coupling coordination with energy value methods enriches analytic tools for rural complex systems and reveals the hierarchical interactive relationship characterized by "agriculture-led, tourism-followed, and ecological lagging." In terms of policy recommendations, targeted strategies should be formulated to address key obstacles at different stages, such as prioritizing waste management interventions in ecological governance and integrating infrastructure upgrades with experiential product innovations in tourism development, to promote high-quality coordinated development of the ATE system.