Remotely sensed vegetation phenology drives large fires spreading in northwestern Europe

In recent years, an increase in the frequency of large fires has been reported in NW Europe, a region where a deeper understanding of the conditions conducive to dangerous fire behavior is needed. This study builds on recent efforts to characterize rate of spread (ROS) variation in the region and delves into vegetation and climatic drivers. For 58 large fires in this region, we analyzed phenology (using the temporal variation of satellite-measured vegetation indices) and weather, (using as the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Results suggest that short-term vegetation greenness play an important role in predicting ROS: High greenness correlated non-linearly with low ROS, and fires spreading in the growing season described a drastic reduction in spread. Fire weather did not prove to be a good indicator of fast spread. Contrary to expectations, high danger related to fire weather ratings were associated with low ROS. This indicates the importance of temporal variability of vegetation greenness, the capability of remote sensing in capturing times when an ignition could generate fast-spreading fires, and the need for a fire weather danger rating system tailored to regional conditions.

This is the repository for the clusterd fire events and its isochrones, and ROS vectors.