Replication Data for: "A Dynamic Forecast: An Evolving Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election"

In this article, we build a model to predict the state-level results of the 2024 election. We do so by using polling from similar points in past election cycles and by using the results of the previous election. Notably, we update our model over time and the coefficients of the two variables change- the model puts more weight on polling as the election gets closer. As of September 1, 2024, we find that Kamala Harris is a narrow favorite to win the 2024 election, with a 57 percent chance of doing so. Currently the model predicts she will win 289 electoral votes to Trump's 249. However, there remains significant uncertainty and the model will continue to update as the election nears