<b>Understanding and Addressing Jamaica’s Homicide Epidemic: A Multi-Decadal Analysis of Socio-Political and Structural Factors</b>

Jamaica has experienced a dramatic escalation in homicide rates from 1960 to 2024, transforming from a relatively peaceful post-independence society into one of the countries with the highest percapita homicide rates globally. Annual homicide counts rose from fewer than 70 in the 1960s to peaks exceeding 1,600 in the early 2000s, with corresponding rates per 100,000 population increasing from 3.2 to over 60. Time-series and five-year analyses indicate that these increases were not solely due to population growth but were amplified by socio-political dynamics, including the rise of urban garrisons, political rivalries, and retaliatory violence. Firearm proliferation further intensified lethality, while structural drivers such as poverty, unemployment, and community fragmentation sustained high levels of violence even during periods of temporary decline. Decadal and five-year averages reveal persistent high homicide rates from the 2000s onwards, highlighting the chronic nature of violence and the limitations of reactive law enforcement interventions. The findings underscore the predominance of social and political determinants over drug trafficking alone, suggesting that dispute resolution, rights-based policing, and multi-sectoral socioeconomic interventions are critical for sustainable reductions. This study demonstrates the value of longitudinal data in identifying high-risk periods, evaluating interventions, and guiding policy for targeted homicide prevention. Overall, a combination of short-term crime suppression and longterm structural reform is required to address the complex, multidimensional drivers of lethal violence in Jamaica.