Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change - reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions - is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Arabian Gulf, off the ...