Figure 4. Conservative U.S. Post-Consumer Copper-Recovery Potential and Strategic Value, 20- and 30-Year Planning Horizons

Figure 4. Conservative U.S. Post-Consumer Copper-Recovery Potential and Strategic Value, 20- and 30-Year Planning Horizons is an original policy-planning figure developed for Conversion Sovereignty and Strategic Tempo: Copper Fabrication, Thermal Infrastructure, and AI Industrial Capacity, 2026–2056 (Decker, 2026). The figure estimates U.S. post-consumer copper recovery over twenty- and thirty-year periods under two conservative scenarios: a flat-baseline case using current old-scrap recovery and a managed-recovery case assuming modest annual improvement in collection and processing. It also presents an illustrative renovation and fixed-infrastructure subset, gross recovered-metal value, and potential import-displacement value. The figure helps policymakers distinguish theoretical above-ground copper stocks from material that can realistically be collected, processed, refined, fabricated, and qualified for reuse. Its central finding is that post-consumer recovery can reduce future primary-supply pressure and import exposure, but only where asset retirement, ownership, dismantling, sorting, secondary processing, product eligibility, fabrication, and qualification are adequately coordinated. For congressional use, the figure quantifies the long-horizon value of copper embedded in aging buildings, utility systems, commercial assets, machinery, and other infrastructure. It also demonstrates that recycling policy should not focus solely on collection rates. Legislative support is most effective when recovery is linked to domestic preprocessing, secondary refining, manufacturing capacity, workforce development, testing, and qualified end uses. The figure may assist evaluation of renovation programs, recycling incentives, industrial grants, procurement policy, workforce appropriations, and measures intended to reduce strategic import exposure. The estimates are original author scenario calculations based principally upon publicly available U.S. Geological Survey data. The flat-baseline case uses annual old-scrap recovery of approximately 160,000 metric tons. The managed case assumes 1.5 percent annual growth. The fixed-infrastructure range applies an illustrative 35–50 percent share, and gross value uses a constant real assumption of $8,000 per metric ton. Import displacement applies the reported 2025 U.S. net-import-reliance share. These values are not official federal forecasts, guaranteed savings, trade-balance projections, or budget estimates. They do not deduct collection, dismantling, transportation, sorting, refining, environmental-control, fabrication, or qualification costs.