MATLAB Code and Input Data for Demographic Transition, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions Modeling in Colombia

This repository contains the MATLAB scripts and input datasets required to reproduce the results reported in the manuscript “Demographic Transition, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Colombia: A Calibrated System Dynamics Model for Sustainable Policy Scenarios to 2050”. The repository includes three main MATLAB modules: a demographic module, an economic module, and a CO2 emissions module. The demographic module calibrates and projects the population structure of Colombia using three broad age groups. The economic module calibrates GDP per capita for 2000–2023 and simulates five economic scenarios for 2024–2050. The CO2 emissions module calibrates a compact Kaya/STIRPAT-type formulation, performs identifiability diagnostics, evaluates an alternative total-GDP specification, and generates emissions, carbon-intensity, and decarbonization-threshold scenarios. Only the MATLAB scripts and input datasets are provided. Pre-generated figures are not included because all calibration outputs, scenario tables, diagnostic files, and figures are automatically generated when the scripts are executed. The scripts should be run in the following order: first the demographic module, then the economic module, and finally the CO2 emissions module.