Reversing the great degradation of nature by reducing factors related to cropland expansion

As one of the main causes of habitat loss, agricultural cropland expansion
is a major threat to biodiversity. We analyze past and anticipated future
trends in population, per capita crop demand, and crop yield to estimate
agricultural cropland requirements globally by 2050 and 2100, assuming
moderate levels of climate change. According to a model of “business as
usual,” higher-income countries would be expected to show little or no net
growth in cropland by the end of the century whereas cropland area could
nearly double in lower-income countries. We consider two strategies to
reduce global cropland expansion: decreasing per capita crop demand in
higher-income countries**** by eating healthier diets, reducing food
waste, and reducing biofuel production**** and accelerating
economic development in lower-income countries. Economic development in
lower-income countries could reduce future cropland requirements via
slower population growth, improved crop yield, and higher volumes of
global crop trade, which could more than offset rising per capita crop
demand. These impacts would far exceed reductions in cropland requirements
from decreased crop demand in higher-income countries. Further, by
combining accelerated economic development in lower-income countries with
reduced crop demand in higher-income countries in tandem with reduced
trade friction, global cropland requirements could shrink dramatically by
the year 2100. Although economic growth is often considered to work in
opposition to environmental conservation, accelerating economic
development in lower-income countries would not only help alleviate
poverty but could also confer benefits for biodiversity and global climate
change.